Dark Bilious Vapors

UPDATE: The direct link down there is working now.

Over at Back to Iraq, Christopher Allbritton posts an article from "That pink-o, liberal workers’ rag DefenseNews (no link that I can find, unfortunately), also known as a trade publication for defense contractors" which makes a compelling case that the Iraqi Civil War has already started (the direct link to Allbritton's post appears to be broken; go to the main page (first link in this post) and scroll to the September 18, 2005 post titled "Civil War is Here"):

Civil War Is Here
“Even if U.S. and Iraqi officials do not want to admit it, the facts on the ground are overwhelming and they do indicate that Iraq has plunged into a civil war, and things are getting worse by the day,” said Qassem Jaafar, a Doha, Qatar-based Middle East security analyst.

Jaafar listed the symptoms of a civil war as:

• A weak central government with incompetent security apparatus.
• Spread of sectarian and ethnic killings.
• Existence of armed sectarian and ethnic militias.
• High threat perception among the sectarian and ethnic groups of the country.
• Insistence of each group on its demands.
• Foreign interference and support to feuding groups.

Jaafar said all these symptoms are present in Iraq now.

A Washington analyst said Sunnis had not been persuaded to participate in the political process, and the constitution as drawn up would not help that. “Rather than an ‘inclusive’ document, it [the constitution] is more a recipe for separation based on Shiite and Kurdish privilege,” said Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Attiyah said a failure to accommodate Sunni concerns could embolden Sunni extremists.

“If the constitution is not amended to meet Sunni demands and goes as-is to the referendum, then moderate Sunni figures would lose ground to the radical forces and an all-out civil war will spread to each corner of the country,” Attiyah said.

Jaafar agreed. “The U.S. is facing a serious dilemma in Iraq, where its Shiite and Kurdish allies have gone out on their own pushing for their own agendas that do not seem to meet with Washington’s vision of a future Iraq,” he said.

“The Shiites, for example, have been pushing for an Iranian-style Islamic republic, which would not suit U.S. interests,” while “the Kurdish secessionist drive is growing stronger every day, which is getting Turkey and other neighboring states more worried.”

No Win for Washington
Jaafar said that puts Washington on the hot seat.

“The U.S. is stuck in an almost no-win situation. It can neither just withdraw from Iraq without completing the mission and establishing peace and order in the country, and at the same time it does not seem capable of maintaining Iraq’s unity and achieving its promise of establishing a free and democratic Iraq that would be a good model for neighboring countries,” Jaafar said.

Len on 09.18.05 @ 09:02 AM CST