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07/16/2004: Maybe Mike Hollihan shouldn't gloat too soon....
From Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:
Undecided Voters Likely to Break For KerryInterestingly enough, this comports with the analyses I've heard by some Democratic analysts, who point out that the undecideds pretty much break for the challenger; after all, they've seen just about a complete Bush term by now, and if they liked the bastard they woudn't be "undecided", they'd be in the "Bush" column.
Last week, Fabrizio McLaughlin and Associates, a GOP polling firm [my emphasis --LRC], released a strategy memo based on their recent Battleground State Survey that reveals undecided voters "are currently poised to break away from President Bush and to John Kerry."
Among the reasons:negative job approval rating.
- They are more than twice as likely to see things headed down the wrong track as compared to voters overall.
- They give President Bush a net
A solid majority sees the Country as being worse off than they were 4 years ago. They are significantly more pessimistic about the current state of the nation’s economy. They are significantly more likely to favor the federal government doing more as opposed to doing less. The conclusion: "Clearly, if these undecided voters were leaning any harder against the door of the Kerry camp, they would crash right through it."
Update: In a just-released memo, Fabrizio has more bad news for President Bush. In recent polls, there is a "sizeable gap" between his job approval score and his share of the vote.
"In a campaign that is fought at the margins over ever shrinking slivers of the electorate, no sliver is more important or more pre-disposed to being recaptured by the Bush campaign than 'approval gap' voters."
Personally, I'm not going to go on a limb and forecast a Kerry victory, but I think that "analyses" like this:
Find a strong candidate, elaborate a clear vision and platform with good policies. The Democrats got sent to the woodshed in the Nineties for losing their way, and this is their new strategy? Accept your coming whipping like men and women. Go away for a while and re-invent yourselves yet again.are based more in wishful thinking than solid reason. It strikes me that there ain't gonna be a whipping--on either side.
P.S.: not picking on ya, Mike; you're still my favorite "Red", far and away. ;-)
P.P.S.: Hmmmm... "Red" was the color of Communism; interesting "historical" irony that in contemporary American political analysis it represents the right-wing now....
Len on 07.16.04 @ 01:12 PM CST
